Web produced by: Jessica Noll
It’s the economy.
Northern Kentucky University has conducted an online Mock Election during the fall semester, inviting faculty, students and staff to vote for president. Each voter is asked also to fill out a short survey that includes a ranking of the top three issues (from a list of 10) influencing their candidate choice.
As of late last week, with over 2,300 votes cast, 76 percent of those who voted for Barack Obama listed the economy as their No. 1 issue and 68 percent of those who voted for John McCain listed it first.
“I don’t think there’s much surprise in that,” said Mark Neikirk, director of the Scripps Howard Center for Civic Engagement at NKU. “The daily headlines are economic news now, whether from the fed or the stock market or Main Street. People are looking at their 401(k)s and their checkbooks, and they’re concerned. But in case there was any doubt, our Mock Election is finding the same result across parties, across age groups from freshmen to grad students, regardless of gender, race or zip code. The No. 2 issue, in contrast, varies depending on some of those factors.”
For example, among freshmen voting for McCain, “Religious and Moral Beliefs” was the No. 2 factor most often cited, while “National Security” was No. 2 for seniors voting for McCain. The “War in Iraq” ranked second among freshmen voting for Obama, while “Health Care” was No. 2 among seniors.
Click here, for the Mock Election site. Although the general public cannot vote (voters need an NKU user name and password), anyone can view the site and probe its results by clicking on the bar charts to find out demographic and other breakdowns, and to see which issues ranked highest among each group of voters.
“It’s a fun site to play with, and think through what the results mean,” Neikirk said.
“For example, I did a data dive not long after McCain selected Sarah Palin as his running mate,” he said. “The polling then suggested to me that the gender of the voters didn’t matter as much as their age. Men and women responded about the same to Palin. But younger voters – freshmen, for example – were more likely to cite McCain’s vice presidential selection as a reason for supporting him than were older voters (faculty and staff). So maybe McCain closed the age gap somewhat with Sarah Palin more than he closed the gender gap. Interestingly, that settled down in the weeks since, suggesting the Palin boost among younger voters wasn’t sustained,” Neikirk said.
The Scripps Howard Center for Civic Engagement partnered with WNKU and the NKU College of Informatics to offer the Mock Election. Election Day will be the final day for NKU’s Mock Election.
