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Survey USA: Ky. Voters Prefer McCain, McConnell


Last Update: 9/23/2008 11:46 am

Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14397

Geography Surveyed: Kentucky
Data Collected: 09/21/2008 - 09/22/2008
Release Date: 09/23/2008 09:35 ET
Sponsors: WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WHAS-TV Louisville, WLEX-TV Lexington

Bluegrass State Stays Red as McCain Holds Lead: In an election for President of the United States in Kentucky today, 09/23/08, six weeks from Election Day, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville, WLEX-TV Lexington, and WCPO-TV Cincinnati. Today, it's McCain 57%, Obama 38%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released six weeks ago, McCain is up 2 points; Obama is up 1. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 14 weeks ago, McCain is up 4; Obama is down 3.

McCain today wins men by 22 points, women by 17 points. McCain leads among all age groups. 37% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain, up slightly from six weeks ago. 13% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama, also up slightly from six weeks ago. McCain leads among rich and poor, college educated and not college educated, and in all regions of the state.


Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Kentucky adults 09/21/08 through 09/22/08. Of the adults, 835 identified themselves as registered voters. Of them, 672 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the general election on 11/04/08. Kentucky has 8 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Kentucky by 20 points in 2004 and by 15 points in 2000.

1
  Asked of 672 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.8%

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?

57%McCain (R)
38%Obama (D)
2%Other
2%Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
  © 2008 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations

Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14397

Geography Surveyed: Kentucky
Data Collected: 09/21/2008 - 09/22/2008
Release Date: 09/23/2008 09:35 ET
Sponsors: WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WHAS-TV Louisville, WLEX-TV Lexington

Dramatic Shift in McConnell's KY Senate Re-Elect; Women, Voters Focused on Economy, Move to Democrat Lunsford: 42 days until votes are counted in the race for United States Senator from Kentucky, incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell's once double-digit lead is eroding, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville, WLEX-TV Lexington, and WCPO-TV Cincinnati. Today, it's McConnell 49%, Lunsford 46%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released six weeks ago, Lunsford is up 6 points, McConnell is down 3.

Interviews for this survey occurred at a time of economic turbulence. 6 in 10 voters tell SurveyUSA they are focused on the economy, ahead of all other issues. Among voters focused on the economy, McConnell went from a 6-point lead 6 weeks ago, to a 9-point deficit today, a 15-point swing to the Democrat. Lunsford, a Louisville businessman who ran in the Democratic primaries for Kentucky Governor in 2003 and 2007, also gained ground among women, where 6 weeks ago McConnell led by 11, but today the contest is tied. In Western KY, McConnell had led by 20 points, now leads by 11. In North Central KY, McConnell had led by 12, now leads by 2. In Eastern KY, McConnell had led by 26, now leads by 11. Among voters 50+, McConnell's lead has been cut by two-thirds. Among wealthier voters, McConnell's lead has been cut in half.

To put these numbers into context, it is critical to note that the identical survey that polled Kentucky voters on the US Senate race also asked about the Presidential contest. The same respondents rethinking McConnell are sticking with John McCain. McCain led by 18 points 6 weeks ago, leads by 19 points today. At a time when McConnell is struggling with women, McCain is gaining ground with women. Complete SurveyUSA results of McCain-Obama in Kentucky are here.


Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Kentucky adults 09/21/08 through 09/22/08. Of the adults, 835 identified themselves as registered voters. Of them, 672 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the general election on 11/04/08.

1
  Asked of 672 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.9%

Kentucky voters will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for United States Senator were today, would you vote for (choices rotated) Republican Mitch McConnell? Or Democrat Bruce Lunsford?

49%Mitch McConnell (R)
46%Bruce Lunsford (D)
5%Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
  © 2008 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations
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